Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment and Update: ISW Map, December 31, 2024
Key Takeaways from the ISW:
Russian forces have made significant gains in territory, acquiring 4,168 square kilometers, mostly fields and small settlements in Ukraine and Kursk Oblast, but at a high cost of over 420,000 casualties in 2024.
Strategic Priorities:
The Russian military focused on capturing the remaining areas of Donetsk Oblast and establishing a buffer zone in northern Kharkiv Oblast in 2024, yet fell short of achieving these objectives.
Territorial Seizures:
Throughout 2024, Russian forces have taken control of four mid-sized settlements – Avdiivka, Selydove, Vuhledar, and Kurakhove. Notably, Avdiivka had a pre-war population of just over 31,000 people.
Future Projections:
At their current rate of advancement in 2024, Russian forces would need slightly over two years to occupy the rest of Donetsk Oblast. This estimate assumes that all advances are limited to Donetsk, large urban areas are as easily taken as smaller villages, and Ukrainian counterattacks in Donetsk are minimal.
Continued Ukrainian Resistance:
Despite ongoing efforts, Ukrainian forces have been unable to halt Russian advances in key sectors. The support of Western allies remains crucial for Ukraine to stabilize its frontline in 2025.
Military Developments:
In a recent address on December 31, Russian President Vladimir Putin declared 2025 as the “Year of the Defender of the Fatherland,” underscoring the Kremlin’s commitment to militarizing Russian society and bolstering regime stability.
Notable Incidents:
Ukrainian naval drones successfully downed a Russian Mi-8 helicopter near Cape Tarkhankut in Crimea, marking the first instance of a naval drone targeting an air asset. Ukrainian forces also launched strikes on the Yarsevskaya oil depot in Smolensk Oblast and a Russian military facility in Lgov, Kursk Oblast on December 30 and 31.
Ongoing Military Movements:
Recent advances by Ukrainian forces near Kreminna and in Kursk Oblast have been met with corresponding territorial gains by Russian forces in Kreminna, Siversk, Chasiv Yar, Pokrovsk, and Kurakhove.
Policy Changes:
Starting January 1, 2025, the Russian government will no longer provide enlistment bonuses to prisoners volunteering to fight in Ukraine, signaling a cost-cutting measure amid the escalating conflict.
Stay Informed:
For real-time updates on the conflict, follow @Kyivpost_official on Telegram.
Authors of the original report: Christina Harward, Davit Gasparyan, Angelica Evans, Nate Trotter, and Frederick W. Kagan.
