**Russia’s Reduced Frontline Armor: Ukraine Reports Destruction of 13,000 Units**
Ukraine has reported a significant blow to Russia’s frontline armor, with the destruction or damage of 3,689 tanks, 8,956 infantry fighting vehicles (IFVs), 13,050 artillery pieces, and 407 air defense systems in the year 2024. These losses are posing a severe strain on Russia’s ability to sustain mechanized operations, as per the latest findings from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
### Struggling Russian Armor Reserves
The ISW report highlights the unsustainable nature of Russia’s tank and armored vehicle losses in Ukraine. The country’s production capacity is unable to keep up with the demand, and its Soviet-era reserves are rapidly depleting. To cope with this shortage, Moscow has resorted to refurbishing outdated equipment, some of which are even used as film props. Despite increased defense spending on new production, these reserves are projected to be critically depleted by the year 2025.
### Significant Losses in Offensives
The period between January 2024 and January 2025 witnessed substantial losses for Russian forces across multiple offensives. Particularly in Donetsk Oblast, intensified operations in September and October resulted in the destruction of at least 197 tanks and 661 armored personnel carriers (APCs). The ISW report indicates that the losses sustained by Russian forces could be even higher during earlier mechanized assaults in June and July.
### Struggles of Russian Defense Industrial Base
The Russian defense industrial base is struggling to compensate for these losses, with production and repair capacities limited to only 250–300 tanks annually. This rate falls far below the attrition rate experienced by Russia. An assessment from December revealed that Russia now retains less than half of its pre-war tank and armored reserves, with the remaining vehicles often suffering from degradation due to age and weather conditions.
### Shift in Russian Tactics
Recent reports from Ukraine suggest a shift in Russian tactics, with a reduced reliance on armored vehicles in frontline assaults. In sectors like Kurakhove and Pokrovsk, which have been the focal points of Russia’s assaults in Donetsk Oblast, Russian forces are increasingly turning to infantry-based operations, reserving armored vehicles primarily for fire support. Additionally, there has been a noted increase in the use of electric scooters, motorcycles, and ATVs in assaults, likely due to shortages in vehicles.
### Outlook for Russian Operations
ISW’s analysis indicates that Russia’s current loss rate, which is nearly three times higher than in the earlier years of the war, is unsustainable. While Soviet-era stocks and refurbished vehicles are currently sustaining operations, the Kremlin faces mounting challenges in maintaining its mechanized capabilities. This situation may potentially lead to a greater reliance on alternative strategies in the future.
In conclusion, the recent developments in Ukraine have highlighted the vulnerabilities in Russia’s frontline armor and the strain it is putting on their military operations. The evolving tactics and challenges faced by Russian forces underscore the dynamic nature of modern warfare and the importance of adapting to changing circumstances. As the conflict continues to unfold, the impact of these factors on the overall outcome remains to be seen.
