Assessment and Map of ISW Russian Offensive Campaign – December 27, 2024
In the latest assessment by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), key takeaways reveal crucial developments in the ongoing Russian offensive campaign. Here are the most critical details you need to know:
Russia’s Drone Production Expansion
Russia has been ramping up its domestic production capabilities of Iranian-designed Shahed drones in preparation for its upcoming Winter 2024-2025 strike campaign against Ukraine. Despite these efforts, Russia has yet to address limitations in its ability to produce and field these drones effectively, which may pose challenges in the year ahead.
North Korean Casualties and Ukrainian Retaliation
Recent reports indicate that North Korean forces are facing high casualty rates, with the confirmation of the first captured North Korean soldier in Kursk Oblast. Additionally, Ukrainian forces launched a HIMARS strike against a Russian staff meeting in occupied Zaporizhia Oblast, resulting in the reported deaths of three Russian officers. This retaliation followed Ukrainian warnings about potential renewed Russian offensive operations in the region.
Russian Blame Game and Seizure of Oil Tanker
The Russian Federal Air Transport Agency (Rosaviatsiya) attempted to shift blame for the recent Azerbaijan Airlines Embraer 190 passenger aircraft crash in Kazakhstan on December 25 to weather conditions and the pilot’s response to a Russian emergency airspace closure over Chechnya. Meanwhile, Finnish authorities seized the Russian-owned Eagle S crude oil tanker on suspicion of damaging undersea electricity and telecommunication cables in the Baltic Sea. However, it is too early to definitively link these incidents to Russia.
Leadership Changes and Military Developments
Russian President Vladimir Putin appointed Russian Security Council Secretary Sergei Shoigu to lead the newly established Scientific Expert Council of the Russian Security Council. Additionally, Ukrainian forces have regained positions near Siversk, while Russian forces have advanced in various directions, including Toretsk, Velyka Novosilka, Pokrovsk, and Kurakhove. Russian federal subjects are also increasing enlistment bonuses to boost military recruitment efforts.
As the situation continues to evolve, stay informed with the latest updates on the war by following @Kyivpost_official on Telegram. Join us in monitoring these critical developments with insights from authors Kateryna Stepanenko, Olivia Gibson, Nate Trotter, Angelica Evans, and George Barros. Let’s stand together in understanding the complexities of this conflict and its implications for the future.
